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Seven years ago, it took just eight words to energize a Labour conference demonstrating Labour was falling out of love with its then leader. Although not precisely soaring oratory, the words met with rapturous applause as delegates stood for an impromptu ovation.

When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches having such an effect. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.

In that darkly divisive time in 2018, straying from his agreed text like this was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in working-class seats above the Europhile sentiments within Labour. With that single address, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – if only for a while – into a political gambler who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded.

The Shift in Position & Settled Debates

Since then, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue had been settled by the previous year’s general election. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.

Like his predecessor, his strategy has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in key seats, despite survey data indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.

A Lid That Rattles on the EU

However, it’s now Starmer is now to be an embattled party leader. While EU relations is no longer the central crisis in UK politics, a lid which was firmly shut since Brexit is beginning to rattle again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up the rhetoric regarding the damage caused by Brexit has inflicted on the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool to criticize Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and remains his only real achievement.

And yet, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has resulted in a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, towers over the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by the government. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal agreed with Brussels in 2024 offers economic benefits quantified in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure & Bolder Ideas

The chancellor is among those trying to overcome long-standing Home Office resistance to an expansive version of a growth-enabling program for young people allowing young people can travel between Britain and Europe to study or work.

David Lammy muses openly about the clear advantages of joining an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, last week supported an opposition proposal on joining one.

Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees UK-EU relations, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, insists the red lines are still in place, there are ways these could be bypassed. A proposal involves declaring the commencement of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the next manifesto, with implementation only if securing a new electoral mandate.

Starmer's Deep-Seated Scepticism

Yet, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water again cautioning that rejoining an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the commercial agreements with America, which he views as key accomplishments of his premiership.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, stemming from three further factors.

1. First, he believes any customs union agreement is now much harder as ministers are actively diverging from European rules in numerous sectors, including the environment.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain to join the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure in talks has convinced UK negotiators that European nations have little interest in cutting special deals with Britain than in proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, praised by the Kremlin, is viewed by key advisors in Downing Street as grounds for Britain to maintain distance from the EU.

An Alarming Document and Geopolitical Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper asserts Europe is threatened by cultural extinction due to Muslim migration. It includes only one reference of the UK, found on a suggestion that the US government will intervene in British politics to foster the rise of “patriotic” parties.

But, far from deciding that this renders America an undependable ally, ministers reportedly fear that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by risking fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Succession Chatter and The Ghost of 2018

This situation returns us to 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not a pitch to become leader but merely an attempt to preserve the “option” of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, back then, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he currently seems to reject.

But it’s not been lost on Downing Street note that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would stand in any leadership election, is among a clutch of cabinet ministers signaling they want to go further regarding the EU.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a contest to replace Starmer, insist she refuses to comment on her position regarding a customs pact because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Danger and A Wise Memory

The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to claim the territory where most of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.

It would be prudent of him to remember the effect that a short phrase had on his career in 2018. There are options for a big offer on Europe that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should prise them open himself, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.